Home Court: All things considered equal with coaching staff, would count for +8 to the home team right off the bat.
POCT vs PON: I assume that both teams were at 10 or 11 enthusiasm prior to the game. therefore, this will also count for a +8.
Looking at production, i tend to look for a few things. I look first for the lowest starting player and his point production.
For CoC, this is Picazo-Garcia, who scored 13 points with a 9.0 rating (the lowest amongst all but one player on the floor, the backup for the other team). In his man to man matchup, he limited the production of the opposing player in terms of points at least. Offensively, his production was 4/14 (28.5%), and he had 2 assists to 1 turnover and 1 rebound.
On the Dragon's side of things, Weihong was the lowest starter rating wise with an 11.0. His production was 50% FG, with 4 rebounds and 1 turnover, and he fouled out really early on. the backup held the defensive rating, but neither really held Aguilar from scoring when he did decide to shoot it. They should be pleased with limiting production, but they had next to no impact in any other facet of the game.
The key difference between the two matchups is what Whiting did for Dragons in his matchup with Picazo-Garcia. He wasn't ever going to match Aguilar in his ratings, but if he had limited ball movement and rebounding skills, he would've likely had a line closer to 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4-5 turnovers. Instead, he went 6:1 on his AST:TO ratio, and was 2nd on the team in rebounding. Unlike PG, Whiting was a huge part of the team's offensive production. PG didn't stop the ball from being distributed from Whiting to another player, whereas every time PG had the ball himself he shot up a poor shot (lots of 3's), and bricked enough of them to probably cost his team the game. If you have someone who can distribute the ball better, you are going to have to bench him to have a hope to win this playoff series.
Assuming that the Dragons mail in the 2nd game (If CoC CT's and they CT and they lose, then they stand a chance to lose game 3 when CoC CT's again and has an edge in enthusiasm), you'll have to do a little rearranging to play the two big man strategy.