Thanks for your answer Charles
I'm sure that it will help managers here having interesting suggestions.
Well, put in that way, I agree in most of the parts with you.
Just one point, where I wish there will be other points of view :
As you said it here
Are tournament games weighted more heavily? Yes, tournament games are more important than league games. Yes again, because this is evidenced by teams later in the tournament who have three games to navigate during a given week typically putting the most effort and the best lineup into their cup game.
It is mainly true later in the cup.
To come back to the example I gave formerly, last season, the 64th french fell back to 104th whereas he lost in the first turn against a weaker team that played with full strenght.
Anyway, now, I tend to think that effectively, if the gap between teams (based on the rankings :p) is taken into account, then the importance of the turn should also be considered for the calculation.
I mean, that gap between teams should perhaps be considered as less important later in the game than in the beginning.
I mean, that IRL a weaker team doing a great walkthrough will be considered as much more dangerous than in the beginnning.
And whether, in the same time, his ranking would increase more and more as it is going further in the cup
By this way, it would also reduce the gap between teams going further in cup, what would help diminishing the importance of the cup. Less comparison possible between teams that are not in the same division or tournaments yes, this is a problem. But right now, by taking this lack of information into account isn't it uncertainty too much at the advantage of winning teams with 1 victory whereas the loser won't have another chance as he si eliminated ?
I have no opinion about this point for the moment, personnally.
The question of the refreshment of rankings is effectively central. I hadn't thought about it so preciseley before.
To give one example, this team was in french D4 last season and went up until turn 9 of the cup :
(35312) Well, almost everyone on the external forum of french managers knew this team and considered it as dangerous ! , whatever was their level.
About the stats you gave, it effectively proves that the ranking system is not bad in term of prevision.
The most well ranked team wins more often (hopefully ^^ ), yet it doesn't mean that it can't be ameliorated by modifying a bit the importance of the cup or by precising other coeffs
.
Last edited by Dunker Joe at 07/09/2010 14:39:30