Interesting times ahead...
Looking at the remaining schedule:
Hong Kong – France looks rather straightforward to me. Given recent performances, HK should be strong favourites here and assuming a relaxed approach from both sides that result would basically lock Hong Kong into the semifinals. France would then still have some margin, but things could get uncomfortable.
Spain – Serbia is another fairly easy one to predict on paper. Serbia has already spent quite a bit of enthusiasm. Spain might decide to take it easy if they feel relatively safe meanwhile Serbia could either save resources to improve their chances against France or go all-in with the idea that two CTs(
maybe?) might still keep medal hopes alive. Spain still feels like the favourite here
Belgium – Lithuania is actually one of the most interesting games left. Belgium is still clinging to a small but real chance to survive, while Lithuania is mostly playing for pride and to avoid finishing the World Cup (second phase) winless. I’d give the edge to the waffle eaters
but in this game anything can happen
And then there is
Italy – Israel, which might well be the match of the day. We basically has no choice.. we must win and ideally (for me
) by a solid margin, if we want to keep even a tiny door open to the semifinals. Israel on the other hand can afford a loss here as long as they manage to beat Spain in the final round.. which makes their strategic choices particularly interesting
If I were a betting man, I wouldn’t touch this game with a 12-inch pole
but since there’s no betting on BB yet I’m obviously riding with my team
Advantage Italy, and let’s say a lovely +35 while we’re at it!
(keep an eye on
(49855733) , he might help your team too
)
The last round (Serbia–France, Belgium–Italy, Israel–Spain, Lithuania–Hong Kong) could become extremely tense if results fold the “right” way or incredibly boring...
Everything will be heavily shaped by Monday’s games
If I had to roughly estimate the chances to finish Top 4 right now, I’d say something like:
• Hong Kong: >95%
• Spain: 85%
• Israel: 75%
• France: 75%
• Italy: 10%
• Belgium: 10%
• Serbia: <5%
• Lithuania: 0%