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Suggestions > Abolish home court advantage entirely

Abolish home court advantage entirely

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This Post:
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306520.11 in reply to 306520.9
Date: 09/23/2020 23:22:15
Kira Kira Koseki
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
779779
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
I don't follow the logic. Those that can't realistically win the title will naturally be battling for a top four position so that they can avoid the relegation series. Besides, didn't you just imply that it would be better to reward regular season success and discourage play-off buy-ups? Can't have that if we keep the eight team play-off, even if HCA stays intact.

From: Bill

This Post:
55
306520.12 in reply to 306520.1
Date: 09/24/2020 15:51:31
This Post:
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306520.14 in reply to 306520.13
Date: 10/04/2020 09:18:37
Kira Kira Koseki
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
779779
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
Well I clearly overestimated how popular the idea of not having home court advantage would be, though it does come as a shock to me given that right now, a typical season with HCA boils down to "I'll TIE this away game since I'm sure to lose it, but this home game is one I should win."

And that, in my opinion, has made the regular season campaign more boring and predictable than it otherwise could be. Whilst I'd still prefer no advantage, the idea of making HCA weaker is a compromise worth considering. Home court is statistically noticeable in real life, though not nearly as strong as you might think. 2.47 points, based on data spanning from 17-'18 up to the point where Covid shut down '19-'20.

This Post:
00
306520.16 in reply to 306520.15
Date: 10/04/2020 10:57:12
Kira Kira Koseki
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
779779
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
But that has more to do with the relatively wide spread in ability between this season's best ABBL team and the worst, as opposed to the strength of HCA being realistic. Even if there isn't an unanimous agreement regarding how many points HCA is worth on this game, I think everyone can agree that it's way more than the 2.47 point average from the last three years of NBA play (excluding the Orlando bubble since that's neutral court).

As an additional counterpoint, I suspect that last season's ABBL had a much lower percentage of away wins, as the entire league that season was fairly competitive excluding 3 'cupcakes'.

This Post:
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306520.17 in reply to 306520.16
Date: 02/21/2022 03:38:27
Grizzly Bears
II.4
Overall Posts Rated:
6464
Second Team:
BC Rebel
Hi guys, i have 1 question about the HCA "points" you are talking about.. on what are they based on ?
Does the 2.47 points mean if i have a home game that the game will be played at (away team) 47.53% vs (home team) 52.47% ?

i don't understand the numbers like +2.47 points where they come from and on what they are based at, is it 2.47% ?

This Post:
11
306520.18 in reply to 306520.17
Date: 02/21/2022 06:22:14
Kira Kira Koseki
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
779779
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
That was based on real life NBA data across a sample size of a few seasons. In BB the home court advantage seems to account for a more dramatic 5-10 point swing, depending on the PR-Manager specialities both teams have.

By that I mean, if two teams were exactly evenly matched, in real life you could expect the home team to win 58.45% of the time (based on Pythagorean Wins) with an average net margin of 2.47 points. But in BB, if we assume the average net margin gained from HCA to be 5 points instead and factor in the generally weaker offence on display, that expected win rate balloons out to 68.06%.

Last edited by Jay (OTT) at 02/21/2022 06:29:50

This Post:
11
306520.19 in reply to 306520.18
Date: 02/21/2022 11:49:05
Grizzly Bears
II.4
Overall Posts Rated:
6464
Second Team:
BC Rebel
Hi Jay,

Thank your for a fast reply !
Its a long time ago i spended some time to try figuring out some more details about the HCA, I also readed somewhere (cant remember and find the forum posts) that some people where talking about an avarage of 13 points, some where talking about between 10-20 points or some even were talking about only 4-8 points..

Its not that easy to claim some good data about BB wich makes this game verry interesting but with more managers using a PR that has a specialitie wont make it easier to get some good data.

This Post:
00
306520.20 in reply to 306520.19
Date: 02/26/2022 02:54:55
Kira Kira Koseki
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
779779
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
Those estimates of 5 points and the resulting winrate were quite conservative actually, based on late game fouling often giving the winning home team an extra few points, and on teams averaging 90 points per game when the true average seems to be 85.

If it's possible for BB-Justin to do a game engine experiment, I'd like to suggest this; 24 identical players across two teams, one team has HCA. We could figure out just how potent HCA is and also maybe get a control sample on average scores in the current game engine (assuming the players have roughly equal offence and defence skills).

This Post:
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306520.21 in reply to 306520.7
Date: 03/04/2022 04:06:35
Overall Posts Rated:
1616
Totally agree why reward teams who just want to buy a title at end of the season.