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Suggestions > Abolish home court advantage entirely

Abolish home court advantage entirely

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This Post:
00
306520.14 in reply to 306520.13
Date: 10/4/2020 9:18:37 AM
Kira Kira Koseki
ABBL
Overall Posts Rated:
780780
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
Well I clearly overestimated how popular the idea of not having home court advantage would be, though it does come as a shock to me given that right now, a typical season with HCA boils down to "I'll TIE this away game since I'm sure to lose it, but this home game is one I should win."

And that, in my opinion, has made the regular season campaign more boring and predictable than it otherwise could be. Whilst I'd still prefer no advantage, the idea of making HCA weaker is a compromise worth considering. Home court is statistically noticeable in real life, though not nearly as strong as you might think. 2.47 points, based on data spanning from 17-'18 up to the point where Covid shut down '19-'20.

This Post:
00
306520.16 in reply to 306520.15
Date: 10/4/2020 10:57:12 AM
Kira Kira Koseki
ABBL
Overall Posts Rated:
780780
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
But that has more to do with the relatively wide spread in ability between this season's best ABBL team and the worst, as opposed to the strength of HCA being realistic. Even if there isn't an unanimous agreement regarding how many points HCA is worth on this game, I think everyone can agree that it's way more than the 2.47 point average from the last three years of NBA play (excluding the Orlando bubble since that's neutral court).

As an additional counterpoint, I suspect that last season's ABBL had a much lower percentage of away wins, as the entire league that season was fairly competitive excluding 3 'cupcakes'.

This Post:
11
306520.18 in reply to 306520.17
Date: 2/21/2022 6:22:14 AM
Kira Kira Koseki
ABBL
Overall Posts Rated:
780780
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
That was based on real life NBA data across a sample size of a few seasons. In BB the home court advantage seems to account for a more dramatic 5-10 point swing, depending on the PR-Manager specialities both teams have.

By that I mean, if two teams were exactly evenly matched, in real life you could expect the home team to win 58.45% of the time (based on Pythagorean Wins) with an average net margin of 2.47 points. But in BB, if we assume the average net margin gained from HCA to be 5 points instead and factor in the generally weaker offence on display, that expected win rate balloons out to 68.06%.

Last edited by Jay (OTT) at 2/21/2022 6:29:50 AM

This Post:
00
306520.20 in reply to 306520.19
Date: 2/26/2022 2:54:55 AM
Kira Kira Koseki
ABBL
Overall Posts Rated:
780780
Second Team:
Yubi Yubi
Those estimates of 5 points and the resulting winrate were quite conservative actually, based on late game fouling often giving the winning home team an extra few points, and on teams averaging 90 points per game when the true average seems to be 85.

If it's possible for BB-Justin to do a game engine experiment, I'd like to suggest this; 24 identical players across two teams, one team has HCA. We could figure out just how potent HCA is and also maybe get a control sample on average scores in the current game engine (assuming the players have roughly equal offence and defence skills).

This Post:
00
306520.21 in reply to 306520.7
Date: 3/4/2022 4:06:35 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1616
Totally agree why reward teams who just want to buy a title at end of the season.