thanks.
Chances are about 50/50.  It's all luck where you end up.  For example, last season i stayed at the salary floor just training players.  Went an impressive 7-1 vs. the great 8, but still finished in last place somehow!  (loaded big 8 conference).  Had I ended up in the great 8 I'd have made the playoffs easily.  
Anyway, going to continue focusing 100% on training again.  And likely not add any major free agents.  Would like a mostly self-trained team eventually.  Maybe even 8 out of 10 rotation players before they fall into decline.  And speaking of decline, i've really got to train up a replacement for Vasquez in the next season or 2.