Earlier this season, BB-Justin confirmed on US BB Discord that the game engine works by simulating the game five times and then arranging them in order of the results between the teams to pick the final result.
What most of us inferred from that is that if Team A plays at +2 effort compared to Team B, the final result will be the one of five that was most favorable to Team A... if they play at equal effort, the final result will be the median result, and so on. So if that inference is correct, the effect of CT effort is to increase how close the "picked" simulation is to your ideal simulation (subject to the fact that even just five simulations isn't going to completely wipe out the randomness of simulating between two teams).
Based on some previously crowdsourced estimations of the standard deviations of results between two teams in a single simulation (the estimate is that a single simulation between roughly evenly matched teams has a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 16 points), we theory crafted that +1 relative effort is 20-30% increase in chance to win in a game against an evenly matched team.
Of course, the big question mark then is what % win chance do you give up in future games by spending that enthusiasm, but no one in the discussion on US BB-cord had any data to support theorycrafting on that. We talked a little bit about possibly doing some week 1 pickup game testing, but that was so long ago that I don't know if people even remember that lol.
Last edited by Azariah at 6/22/2025 11:02:49 AM