Now that I've bowed out of the playoff chase in the Great 8, I figured I'd share my thoughts on the seeding battle given how intense it has been all season.
We've got 4 teams who were tied for 1st before last nights slate dropped Virginia 1 game behind. Now there's a 3-way tie for first (Lords, Tar Team, Silverbacks) with Virginia in 4th, but they have the PD tiebreaker over 2/3 teams above them.
Here is how I predict the seeding will finish given the remaining schedules.
1. LA Lords
2. Tar Team (neck and neck with Silver)
3. Silverbacks
4. Virginia
LA Lords is the heavy favorite to get the 1 seed. Something pretty crazy would have to happen for them to not clinch it given their schedule + lead in PD. They have a road game against Virginia left, but everything other game on their schedule they are a solid favorite. Tar Team or Silverbacks would need to beat them on the road in the last week of the season, which is possible but would be an upset. They have a real shot to finish the season 6-0 and I project them to finish 17-5
Tar Team has the ever so slightest edge over Silverbacks even though I think Silver might be the better team. They have a slightly easier schedule left, get to play Silver at home, and have a +80 PD lead. I project both of these team to finish 15-7 but there are easy paths to 16 wins. 17 gets harder and is why I dont think they have a shot at the 1 seed unless Lords stumbles.
This assumes that Tar Team does not throw any games for the cup after this week. If they throw @Jumpstop next week to prioritize cup semifinals, they are likely locking themselves into the 3 seed and maybe even drop to 4.
The biggest swing games to decide 2 vs 3 are:
Silverbacks @ Tar Team - if Silver wins they should get the 2 seed
Tar Team @ Visionaries last game of the season - Tar Team may need a road win to lock up the 2 seed. Unclear if they will face a tanking visionaries team or one that has loaded up for a relegation series
Silverbacks @ Mill City - a road upset by Silver would put them in the drivers seat for the 2 seed
Virginia Cavaliers are likely to finish at 4 but have a clearer path to 3 now that Jumpstop Jumpers got a win and is less likely to CT them in the final game of the season. Their range of outcomes is likely 14 or 15 wins with the biggest swing game being whether they can beat LA Lords at home. Their path to getting the 2 or 3 seed requires winning 2 home games against Visionaries and Delaware, and then winning 2 games out of @ Silverbacks, vs Lords, @ Mill City, and @ Jumpstop. That would get them to 15 wins and the PD tiebreaker over either Tar or Silver
Last edited by TonyC at 12/14/2025 11:10:52 AM