I am glad to see that you have put time and effort into this dilemma, Wagner. Having a former Aussie team-mate, Tassie Devils keen to join the HGL (reinforced only days ago in a bbmail), means that I am keen to see how we can address this issue.
Having read everything you have noted above, Wagner, I would propose something slightly different but still within your proposal. However, my proposal is based on the answer to this question: is 18 teams optimal or is 20 possible as a final cap for number of teams competing in the HGL?
My following proposal incorporates what you have outlined above with a small change that I think will also address the 'dramatic' impact you correctly highlighted would occur if we implemented your system immediately.
My Proposal:
1. We expand the HGL to 20 teams prior to the start of next season, Season 6 and cap it at 20. That is, the HGL will never have more than 20 teams ever going forward. If this isn't optimal, then 18 remains the cap.
See, TBH actually 16 would be way more optimal number of teams instead of 18, let alone 20. Compared to 16, there is now:
A) added workload (more teams to manage but especially more RS matches)
B) we have to play RS on 2 Sundays as well (20 teams would force 2 more RS Rounds, right, so on 4 Sundays=four 3 game weeks=way too much already?!?)
C) makes amount of teams reaching Playoffs slightly more non-optimal to my liking (vs. on 16 teams league).
However, please note that while I'd see 16 more suitable in almost all ways, I'm not currently driving a change to 16 (instead of 18) as there seems to be demand for at least 18 teams.
Please note also, that while nobody has left their withdrawal notice yet, there's no guarantee that, say, 1-4 teams would't do so before the announcement deadline already this Season, which would free up automatically places for new teams even without HGL-PL (or similar), but of course I don't hope that would happen.
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Allowing for 20 teams, essentially adding 2 more teams at the end of this season, will provide everyone (current and future) teams with a fair amount of time to prepare for the upcoming changers to the HGL in Season 7. It will also allow for 2 teams to enter as, unless I am mistaken, we only have 2 teams ready to join?
2. We make an announcement (ensure everyone knows) sometime this season that a PIL will take effect prior to the start of Season 7 and that 2* teams will be relegated to be replaced by 2 new teams.
3. Prior to the start of Season 7, all teams wishing to join the HGL (whether previous members or otherwise) need to compete in the PIL to secure one of 2 spots. That is, 2 teams will be 'relegated' from the HGL at the end of Season 6, and 2 new teams (best performers of the PIL) will enter.
As for announcing things early, I'm in the same boat with you (and demars, and probably with most of us).
I wouldn't prefer to make an announcement in a middle of Season, that 'oh please note that if you're at the bottom 2 this Season, you're going to be relegated'. So just as also demars and yourself mentioned, it's good to inform managers beforehand, and that's why I started this conversation this early, and also mentioned the same sort of schedule for possible entering for new teams in my previous messages (earliest on Season 7 there could be possibility to enter through promotion/relegation match).
Again, as mentioned in my previous message, I
don't think it would be fair though to "kick out"committed HGL managers who comply with all the rules, and could be even stronger than HGL Promotion League-teams, by the means of auto-relegation (without the chance to defend their place in HGL promotion/relegation final match).
In this case, all potentially new HGL teams could check out the salary-posts of HGL, to see at what stage their team is in in terms of winning worst HGL team.