BuzzerBeater Forums

In fact to add to this I think we have to look at more than just this one draft. Looking back 10 drafts to season 54, Belgium has 4 All Time Greats (that are still active players). USA has 22 (including the 9 this season). While there is a chance some players have retired (though not common for any ATG), that means Belgium has been luckier than the USA! Now I don't think we've had 7x as many users this entire time, maybe more like x6 so it ends up looking about even. From that perspective this draft was just the USA catching up to Belgium in how many all time greats we get per user.

Yes our luck is now a little higher than Spain or Italy after the last draft (when looking over 10 seasons). Here is 10 seasons of active ATG players now:

USA: 22
Spain: 21
Italy: 20


Since we are a little smaller in number of users this last draft put us ahead in luck over 10 seasons. However, if you look at S53 Spain had 6 all-time greats. Before this season our luck was much worse than them as Spain had 20, Italy had 19, and we had 13.

The fact is this draft is an outlier, but go ahead and try and use it to push your agenda. It would just be good if you tried to understand statistics a little better.

Just dropping my 2¢ since I was the one who started this mayhem and I feel somewhat responsible...

I do not think the draft is unfair.

I do not think we need any more business logic changes. In fact I more or less dislike the recent ones but I can live with them.

All I meant to say is that I believe we need to have a lot less ATGs. I believe that not because of their higher potential cap but because of the fact that they are guaranteed superstars (in the right hands) right from the moment they start training.

I do not have any major problems with the algorithm. I do not see this as a functional defect. I see it as purely a cosmetic issue. All I would change is the threshold at which a player is visualized as ATG. If it is 10.95 now, I would make it 10.98 or 10.99. That's all!



Last edited by mink0ff at 03/28/2024 19:03:23

I mean you should consider them in my opinion, because they are technically part of the pool for ATGs and help explain why certain nations may have more and which nations truly got luckier/more unlucky.

A 5/5 draftee spawn can be 9, 10, or 11 potential. The BB engine does not discriminate on if the player being spawned is going to an active team or not. That’s where nation size comes into play because there’s a better chance that those 11 potential players go to an active manager if it’s a country with more users.

The ATG spawns overall (whether going to a bot or a human) just showcase how ATGs aren’t more likely to go to an active manager of any specific country than to a bot of any specific country. It’s just how probability works. Let’s say just for an example that per every 250 5/5 spawns, there is one ATG….

1/250 chance for a smaller nation is going to be the exact same as 1/250 for a larger nation. When you can multiple the 250 x 3-4 (because the USA has 3-4x more users than some other nations), you end up with 3/750 or 4/1000. The probability is still the exact same but the total of ATGs going to active managers is more because the pool is simply bigger. If people want that to be even across all nations, you’d be increasing the probability that smaller nations draft 11 potential players, which would be more unfair in my opinion.