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Welcome to the new teams and good riddance to the old ones! I'll be pulling together my Season 63 preview this week. Best of luck to everyone (except for San Dominica). Cheers!

Welcomes and Farewells
Welcome to Season 63 in Div III.11 in which we see another six new teams enter the arena, superseding our five relegations and one (once again, thank god) champion, southpaw army who spent one quick season in our league, who utterly decimated everyone in their scorched earth campaign to promote to Div. II.3. Last season, both conferences seemed relatively top heavy, though the head nod goes to the Big 8 as the tougher foes in general, with two teams botifying on the Great 8 side. While only five teams were at least .500 in the Big 8, seven of the teams had better records than the bottom half of the Great 8. But, as I mentioned, the top half of the great 8 was pretty brutal as well, with Tasty Tardsicles winning out the battle for the chance to advance.

As always, there's lots of shifting to come on the transfer market...I'm hoping to get some preseason rankings posted on Friday, although that will be a bit of a fluff ranking as the market doesn't tend to settle down until a couple of weeks into the season. While we wait, here's a quick overview of those who left and those who've joined us for Season 63.
The Relegators
The Best of the Worst - Las Vegas High Rollers (WR: 8884 | CR: 459). There's certainly a case to be made for a different relegated team to be listed as the Best of the Worst (the highest of praise), but I'm rolling with Vegas who persevered admirably in a league far beyond their head. True, they only won four games, but they improved their World Ranking by 1500 and their Country Ranking by nearly 100. They have a decent core and just need a super star or two to push them over the top to maintain in Div III. They find themselves in Div IV.29 (my second coming originating grounds) where our prior friends The Beer Bellys and FR-S both resided (FR-S went undefeated last season and won the 'ship, while Bellys drunkenly stumbled their way into second place in their conference before getting D-City Smoked while still getting promoted(?) to IV.2).

The Maybe Next Season? - I'm giving this to Philly Dribble (WR: 2909 | CR: 140) whose descent the last two seasons was somewhat shocking, but it's clear they gave up on an aging core and went for the rebuild opportunity. They did draft a 19-year-old 6'6" MVP potential rookie and over the past few weeks have splurged their outgoing transfer money on three young 20-somethings whom they appear to help bolster the retained Bud Pimentel and Mack Farnsworth. I'm curious to see what path they take - if they take a breath in Div IV. 26 for a season to gather themselves for another run after spending the last 8 seasons in the best of the Div III leagues.

The Give Them Some (ALOT) More Time - TwoTone Touloose (WR: 11885 | CR: 642) received help from a walk-over win first game followed by bot matchups to grant them three wins. If Zubr and Miami hadn't botified, I'm comfortable saying there's no way they win a single game. Aside from the bot teams, they scored more than 20 points less per game and on average gave up more than 35 more points than they scored. In terms of efficiency, they averaged 40 points less EFFG than any other non bot opponent. They're in IV.28, home to the champion Jumpstop Jumpers who we'll preview shortly.

The Bots - And we finally get my final sob session about losing two legitimately good teams, Miami Cleo and Żubr Białystok. Miami was a well-established dominant force, and it was depressing to watch them wither away into nothing, and Żubr Białystok was making advances and showing that solid training regimens do wonders for a squad. Both will be missed.

Welcomes and Farewells - Part Two
The Promoted - A Good Riddance to southpaw army (WR: 773 | CR: 30), who arrived as the clear favorite by something like more than $100k in salary and then halfway through the season added another $100k in the form of New Zealand's NT backup SF. In fact, the only games they lost all season were an unfortunate early (third round) Cup matchup against Explosive Bubble Wrap (EBW fame) and then in the quarter finals of the BBM Tier 4.

The Newcomers
With three new teams on both sides, here are the newcomers, in no particular order:

Dragmort Dragons Utd, managed by Alex Dani.
World Rank: 3745
Country Rank: 175
DD United (Unlimited? Up To Date? Ut Dictim {Latin: As I Said}?) joins us after being crowned champions of league IV.15 where they took a 21-1 record into the finals and easily defeated Maryland Terps03. Their 1115+ point differential towered over every other team in the league. They've been in existence since Season 57, and this is their 2nd trip to Div III, having relegated out of III.4 after just one season in Season 59. Back for Round Two with an average salary per player of $14.7k.

Balls to the Walls - managed by Scags.
World Rank: 13776
Country Rank: 767
In their inaugural season (Season 62), Balls took it to maybe the only Div IV league without a bot (I have no proof of this, and I'm too lazy to factually prove it, but feel free to look it up!). Their 17-5 record was good for first in their division and then they rode their defense to the 'ship, holding opposing teams (terrifyingly named Convicts, Black Phoenix, and Studs) to just 53 PPG in the playoffs. They ride into the Div III.11 buzzsaw with an average salary of $5.3K.

Shandong Golden Lions - managed by bzyzz.
World Rank: 2587
Country Rank: 122
Shangdong has been back at this for a season longer than my own return to the game, starting out in Season 45 in Div IV and making their way through the seasons all the way up to II.3 last season after winning III.14 in Season 61. Last season's 6-16 campaign ended in defeat to the Flying Ostriches in a relegation series that lasted three games. The Golden Lions average $17.8k in salary coming into the season.

Welcomes and Farewells - Part Three
(sheesh, I'm already long-winded!)

CB Bethesdorf - managed by Dabizinho.
World Rank: 5026
Country Rank: 239
Dabizinho brings us two names I have no understanding of, but the relatively upstart squad is making its 2nd venture into III territory this season. Founded in Season 58, they immediately promoted to III.6 before whimpering back to Div IV for three seasons, making the finals in IV.10 last season to win promotion with a 22-0 record and a 1220+ point differential. CB Bethesdorf's average salary comes in at $11.9k at this point in the preseason.

Muffin Men - managed by voccc.
World Rank: 11894
Country Rank: 644
Winning this season's award for best named team (and let's be honest, it's been a hot minute since we've had some of those great named teams), my only complaint thus far is that voccc seems like a misplaced opportunity for the name of the one who leads the Muffin Men. But I digress. Another relatively new squad is presented by the Muffins, with the Men being brought together for the first time in Season 61 and won IV.64 last season on the back of an impressive 21-1 finish, including a 20-point victory over what appeared to be the primary competition in the semi-finals of the Great 8 playoffs. The Muffin Men sport a $7.8k average salary as a squad.

Jumpstart Jumpers - managed by Coach Randall El.
World Rank: 2173
Country Rank: 100
An old soul arrives on the season, with Coach El's crew getting its start clear back in season 16 when Div V was more of a thing. To say they've been around the block would be an understatement. With two seasons of Div II play under their belt, they appear to be looking to ramp things back up as they come to us from their most recent foray into IV.28 after being relegated from III.6 the season prior. But this group is a bit of a departure, having won the finals while not being the top seed, in fact sporting the third best record in their league, but pulled off a two point victory in the semi-finals before eliminating GR Venom in the finals. They will have their work cut out for them with an average salary of $5.5k.

As of this writing, there are 15 transfers listed, but at the time of this posting, only three with bids, including 209's "prodigious" sharp shooter Ariel Ziółkowski. In the meantime, I'm hoping some of the transfer sessions get under way and completed so that when it comes time for me to post my Preseason Rankings, they'll be somewhat less accurate than they would normally be. But, those of you who've been around know how often I'm LOUD WRONG about these sorts of things.

Best of luck to you all, and to all a good night!

Pio Reina was mad, and Air Allnite was the target of his ire. “I don’t care that we lost the scrimmage, Air. I cannot and will not abide an 18 assist to 20 turnover ratio. The rookie that fouled out, Jimenez is it? 4 turnovers and 1 assist in 33 minutes. Reynolds with 4 turnovers and 1 assist in 36 minutes. Those I somewhat expected, but then Shooter goes 33 minutes 3 assists and 5 turnovers. Come on, man! Farley was the only decent player out the with 7 assists and1 turnover in 15 minutes. IF this becomes a pattern, you won’t see the end of the season employed here. Don’t say a single word! I don’t want excuses. I want results.”

Marshall Richards strolled in. “Hey Pio, the door was open so I thought I’d come in.”

“Good,” Pio began. “Kops in 12 minutes was pretty solid. The problem was Reynolds was trash. Pure trash. 36 minutes of absolute garbage. Is he going to show up this season or not? Does he know it’s time to start showing us something? If he doesn’t, that becomes your problem. Do I make myself clear?

Fully chastened, Marshall replied “yes sir.”

“Byron, I know you’re outside. Get in here. Pemwieser was terrible. So was McCain. Hatfield had effort but no results. Not acceptable.” Pio started pacing the room.

“I need you all to understand one thing. There are no excuses. We either get the results out of these guys, or we look for new jobs. I can look and see who didn’t play; I’m not worried about that. If we can’t get these guys up to the level of the guys we know are going to start, we don’t deserve these jobs. We are not where we want to be. We don’t have the depth we want. We can’t shoot, we can’t rebound, we can’t take care of the ball. How do you think we have to win? I’ll tell you how! We have to be better. We have to limit mistakes. We have to take full advantage of the opportunities we get. We have to play defense like these guys have never seen before. If we can’t score, we need to make sure the other team can’t either. This was an unacceptable performance. We were ranked higher in the world and the country. As far as I’m concerned, that was supposed to be a far better performance out there. Now get ready for a long grueling practice. Everyone is about to learn today.”

GM Roberto Gurgone waited until everyone had left the room, then he approached Pio. “Pio, you think you might have been a little harsh?”

Pio replied brusquely, “No. 209 is going to be a hard ask for us. One of the new arrivals, Dragmort, I’m not sure what to make of them. F. Day looks like bad nights for us. The Rebels are going to kick the crap out of us. I think we can handle the Muffin Men, but we’ll also beed to be careful acquisitions. They could quickly surpass us. San Dominca needs no explanation. You already know. The Golden Lions are going to abuse us. That’s just our conference. I’m not worried about the other conference; if we can’t take care of business here what happens there won’t matter.”

“As always, Pio, very astute. What do we need to do?”

“Go defense first. We need upgrades in the backcourt. Cerri is inconsistent. I’m not sold on Farley, either. Shooter has got to commit to defense or he’ll be a weapon off the bench. He has the potential to do far more. Keep an eye on Petriukstis. I don’t know why, but I have a feeling he’s ready to break out. Kops will be interesting to watch. Let’s see how he develops. We know what Koncki and MacNeur will do. Pemwieser needs to step it up. Hatfield can defend. We need to use him appropriately.”

“You sure give a detailed list. I’ll see what I can do for you. You may not like some of the moves; just know I‘m trying just like you are.”

Season 63 Preview
Unofficially, here's the official welcome to our Div III.11 residents. Not sure I'll be able to do a weekly write-up this season, but I'm getting my pre-season rankings (which will be LOUD WRONG, I'm sure) out before the first game of the season. It will mostly be wrong because managers aren't finished selling off their sluff and adding their dominance, though some of us seem to be settled in for the long haul with what we've got. If I have time, once things settle down, I may try to update these around the all-star break. [and yes, I copied and pasted this from last seasons - why you ask? Because it's damn good. And I'm lazy].

Last season I predicted southpaw army to defeat Super Sonics in two games. And while I was correct, you could have slapped a tattoo on my forehead that read DUMBASS if I hadn't guessed the juggernaut southpaw would win. Aside from that Miami going bot threw my playoff predictions off and VileOnes made me suffer for it by turning in a nice season. On the other side, Speedtraps spit in my face by Openly Tanking But Not Tanking to make that prediction wrong, but otherwise I'm giving myself a Not Terrible (like Blaine Gabbert)! award. This season will go much worse, I'm sure, especially since (at the moment) I have the highest salaried team (Kurt Brown, you're being paged for costing too much money).

And now, for my disclaimer:

I've done these rankings for the last few seasons with a major modification to it three seasons ago. I measure each salary against the average for each category and then assigned a point value based on that. For example, for Total Salary it breaks down like this: for teams $100k over the league total average and for teams $100k less the league total average:

Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average+100,000 = 60 Points
Team Total Salary +100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 Points

We'll use this season's current salaries as examples:
- My Lion Rebels currently have a total salary number of $399k, which is almost $$151k over the league wide average of $248k, so in that category they score 60 points.
- But Mindless Zombies ranks 3rd in total salary at $344k, which is just $4k less than $100k over the average, so they only net 50 points and miss out on that 10 points.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum is VileOnes, whose current total salaries are $146k - when we add another $100k to that, they're still less than the league average, so they score 0 points.

You then have variances for points assigned to a team based on how far they vary from the average with the above examples being the extreme.

I weight Total Salary and Top 6-10 ("bench play") the highest (range from 0-60 points), while Top 5 and Top 8 are 2nd tiered (0-30 points) and Top 10 is the lowest tier (0-15 points). I add those five category point totals and then divide by five and you have your rankings by total points. All ties are broken by Top 6-10 rank.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.

Season 63 Preview - Part Two

Current League Leaders in Salary
1. Lion Rebels - $399,198. I usually run with 13 players, but I've got 16 rostered so far. Don't ask me why I'm holding on to my shit draftees, but I am for the time being. (And yes, they're currently listed, but I doubt they'd be picked up for $0).
2. Tasty Tardsicles - $368,990. Spilly is sitting tight, content with a finals run last season. Sitting at a 12-player roster, it will be curious if they try to bring in another player or not.
3. Mindless Zombies - $344,499. It's been a beat since we've had more Great 8 teams a top these preseason rankings than Big 8's, but I've a feeling that's going to change this season.

This season marks the first time since Season 58 that we haven't seen an increase in average salary. Before this season, we saw it go from $215k in Season 58 to $307k last season. But we're down nearly $60k this season to $248k. This season only seven teams are averaging less than that, but only one of them are averaging less than $100k.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players, in which we see a familiar set of three teams:
1. Lion Rebels - $288k- 72% of their total salaries
2. F.Day Internet Lovers Club - $269k - 81%
3. Mindless Zombies - $268k - 78%

Overall, the 16 teams average $181k for top 5 paid players with six teams averaging $50k more than the average and eight teams averaging less than the average. Jumpstop Jumpers, Muffin Men, and Balls to the Walls are the only teams spending less than $100k on their top 5.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. San Dominica Warriors - $115k ($23k per player)
2. Tasty Tardsicles - $97k ($19.4k per player)
3. Lion Rebels - $90k ($18k per player)

Season 63 Preview - Part Three
Season 62 Final Ranking Predictions
Once again, these rankings are based on salaries, with total salary and 6-10 players weighted highest, then a notch below that ranks Top 5 & Top 8, followed by Top 10. Feel free First Take me to death with these things (someone please do a Stephen A's List). And don't forget, these salary numbers will most definitely change, but my terrible predictions never will! Total points achieved in my rankings will be in parenthesis.

16. Balls to the Walls (0) - I said this last season, but I'll say it again: I feel bad for these new Div IV teams that dominate and then get dropped in our league...they might have a fighting chance in a different division, but I doubt it. Scags did bring in Claus Hofstätter...but I don't think he's going to cut it. For now, they'll have to enjoy their only time in 1st place in the standings this season.

15. Muffin Men (1) - voccc's squad earned 5 points in the 6-10 rankings, but just barely. They also just barely eclipse the $100k mark. I'm putting the over/under win total at 2.5.

14. Jumpstop Jumpers (1) - Coach Randall El has spent a cool $3.3 mil on $40k of young salary to boost their chances, but that still only brings their total salary level to 14th in the league currently. I also almost took a swing at his rookie Calvin Sylvester, but thankfully forgot about it and didn't spend all my savings.

13. VileOnes (2) - I hadn't been paying enough attention to transfer sales, so I missed that a week ago Vile sold off $150k of salary and the heart of the team, so I was surprised to see them at 13th, but that tracks (currently) being $112k under the average total salary of the league. But with almost $1.4 mil in recouped money, they've got some time to spend and revamp their roster. Or they're tanking. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

12. CB Bethesdorf (5) - Creeping closer to $200k in salary, Dabizinho is actually ranked 8th in 6-10 salaries. No movement from them as of yet on the transfer wire. At this point, they'd be looking at 6th in the Great 8. But I've been wrong before.

11. Fort Wayne Pistons (7) - The Mechanic may be the one who benefits the most from what's happening (or not happening) in the Great 8, but it might not be much better than one slot above last season's venture. They also haven't brought anyone new in in nearly 18 months of real life time (that's Season 57 for those of you counting at home).

10. Dragmort Dragons Utd (10) - Alex Dani finds themselves at what appears to be 7th in the Big 8 to start the season. They've got a decent group of four split by age, with two in their low 20s and two hitting age 34 this season, which leaves them in somewhat of a dilemma depending on how this season plays out. I'm not saying they'll finish 7th, but the six teams ranked above them from the Big 8 are fairly intimidating.

9. Linndale (16) - (Well, damn it! I picked this back up this morning only to find out that MUFFIN MEN BOUGHT A $63k salaried PF. Here's your Live Updated Rankings with this "latest" breaking news":
16. Still Balls to the Walls
15. Jumpstop Jumpers
14. VileOnes
13. Muffin Men

SVP: "Charles, what do you make of voccc's move to acquire Carlos Webber before the beginning of the season?"
Barkley: "Who got who? Watchu talkin' bout Scott? I got more important things to talk about that Muffins and a wannabe Chris Webber, the greatest King of all time."

And with that, back to our regular programming):
Speedtraps shows up in the middle of the pack with Koncki and MacNeur doing the heavy lifting for them. They're tactically sound enough that they should be fine and in the playoff mix, the only question is whether Air Allnite will cause enough of a storm for them to do something crazy (like sell everyone).

Season 63 Preview - Part Four
8. 209's MostWanted (15) The "Original" Alex's crew reminds me a bit of Season 61's champion Carolina Rebels, who I perennially ranked low in my power ranking lists while it came back to bite me when they exceeded my low expectations. They're the first team in this list to have a higher than league average salary total, and I'm sure they'll kick my ass in the 2nd game of the season.

7. Shandong Golden Lions (24 - 13th in 6-10 Rank) - As far as teams relegating from Div II to us go, the Golden Lions aren't the scariest group to meander their way down, but they will be stiff competition for all of us. Still, their one glaring weakness appears to be depth. They have a Big Three, and a solid starting 5, but after that, the drop off is steep. I do love me some 44-year-old PGs though!

6. Super Sonics (27) - I'd say, despite me ranking them 5th in last season's preseason rankings, that the Sonics finish may have been slightly disappointing as Tasty appeared to have overtaken them. And now, here they sit at sixth, which is probably just enough of a slight to warrant them taking it out on me and winning the whole damn thing.

5. San Dominica Warriors (25) - The Warriors are bringing some new blood to the fight this season with 26-year-old English 7 footer Chris O'Brien. 8 of their currently 12 rostered players make at least $20k (which is a bit misleading as 7 of them make at least $29k). They've never gone the route (thus far) of having One Monster Salary Player, but instead have opted for depth and it's been a mostly winning, or at least highly competitive formula for them.

4. F.Day Internet Lovers Club (28 - 6th in 6-10 Rank) - Honestly, these last four teams could be flipped, and I'd probably be more right than this guess is. F.Day comes back strong and ready to take over the top spot in the Big 8. Keep a lookout!

3. Mindless Zombies (28 - 5th in 6-10 Rank) - The Zombies have done some retooling to enhance their chances of getting back to the finals again. They spent some decent money to bring in "A.C." Carečina to matchup with Thomas Freeman and boost their interior alongside Macario Coedo.

2. Lion Rebels (37 - 3rd in 6-10 Rank) - There's no way I'd list my team first in the preseason rankings, not even if they had $500k more in salary than the next closest team. I'm sure I'll find a way to flub this up.

1. Tasty Tardsicles (37 - 2nd in 6-10 Rank) - I think one of the things I'm most excited about this season (and stemming from last season) is the renewed parity going on between the Great 8 and the Big 8. A couple of seasons ago, it wasn't much of a fight between the two, but now, I really think it could go either which way between the top 8 teams who mostly evenly split among the divisions.

Last edited by Baine at 12/02/2023 10:39:37

Conference Standings Predictions

Big 8
1. Lion Rebels
2. F.Day Internet Lovers Club
3. San Dominica Warriors
4. Shangdong Golden Lions
5. 209's MostWanted
6. Linndale
7. Dragmort Dragons Utd
8. Muffin Men

Great 8
1. Tasty Tardsicles
2. Mindless Zombies
3. Super Sonics
4. Fort Wayne Pistons
5. CB Bethesdorf
6. VileOnes
7. Jumpstop Jumpers
8. Balls to the Walls

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Fort Wayne Pistons vs. Tasty Tardsicles
Super Sonics vs. Mindless Zombies

Big 8 Playoffs
Shangdong Golden Lions vs. Lion Rebels
San Dominica Warriors vs. F.Day Internet Lovers Club

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Mindless Zombies vs. Tasty Tardsicles (Upset!)

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
F.Day Internet Lovers Club vs. Lion Rebels

Relegation Matchups
209's MostWanted over Jumpstop Jumpers in three
Dragmort Dragons over CB Bethesdorf in two
Linndale over VileOnes in two (funnily enough, I had Vile losing in a relegation series last season, and they made it to the playoffs).

Season 61 Championship
Mindless Zombies over Lion Rebels in three.

And so, there you have it! Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Great write up!!!!

but you will need to rank me lower after first week since you missing out some sales that I had