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Season 63 Preview
Unofficially, here's the official welcome to our Div III.11 residents. Not sure I'll be able to do a weekly write-up this season, but I'm getting my pre-season rankings (which will be LOUD WRONG, I'm sure) out before the first game of the season. It will mostly be wrong because managers aren't finished selling off their sluff and adding their dominance, though some of us seem to be settled in for the long haul with what we've got. If I have time, once things settle down, I may try to update these around the all-star break. [and yes, I copied and pasted this from last seasons - why you ask? Because it's damn good. And I'm lazy].

Last season I predicted southpaw army to defeat Super Sonics in two games. And while I was correct, you could have slapped a tattoo on my forehead that read DUMBASS if I hadn't guessed the juggernaut southpaw would win. Aside from that Miami going bot threw my playoff predictions off and VileOnes made me suffer for it by turning in a nice season. On the other side, Speedtraps spit in my face by Openly Tanking But Not Tanking to make that prediction wrong, but otherwise I'm giving myself a Not Terrible (like Blaine Gabbert)! award. This season will go much worse, I'm sure, especially since (at the moment) I have the highest salaried team (Kurt Brown, you're being paged for costing too much money).

And now, for my disclaimer:

I've done these rankings for the last few seasons with a major modification to it three seasons ago. I measure each salary against the average for each category and then assigned a point value based on that. For example, for Total Salary it breaks down like this: for teams $100k over the league total average and for teams $100k less the league total average:

Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average+100,000 = 60 Points
Team Total Salary +100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 Points

We'll use this season's current salaries as examples:
- My Lion Rebels currently have a total salary number of $399k, which is almost $$151k over the league wide average of $248k, so in that category they score 60 points.
- But Mindless Zombies ranks 3rd in total salary at $344k, which is just $4k less than $100k over the average, so they only net 50 points and miss out on that 10 points.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum is VileOnes, whose current total salaries are $146k - when we add another $100k to that, they're still less than the league average, so they score 0 points.

You then have variances for points assigned to a team based on how far they vary from the average with the above examples being the extreme.

I weight Total Salary and Top 6-10 ("bench play") the highest (range from 0-60 points), while Top 5 and Top 8 are 2nd tiered (0-30 points) and Top 10 is the lowest tier (0-15 points). I add those five category point totals and then divide by five and you have your rankings by total points. All ties are broken by Top 6-10 rank.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.

Season 63 Preview - Part Two

Current League Leaders in Salary
1. Lion Rebels - $399,198. I usually run with 13 players, but I've got 16 rostered so far. Don't ask me why I'm holding on to my shit draftees, but I am for the time being. (And yes, they're currently listed, but I doubt they'd be picked up for $0).
2. Tasty Tardsicles - $368,990. Spilly is sitting tight, content with a finals run last season. Sitting at a 12-player roster, it will be curious if they try to bring in another player or not.
3. Mindless Zombies - $344,499. It's been a beat since we've had more Great 8 teams a top these preseason rankings than Big 8's, but I've a feeling that's going to change this season.

This season marks the first time since Season 58 that we haven't seen an increase in average salary. Before this season, we saw it go from $215k in Season 58 to $307k last season. But we're down nearly $60k this season to $248k. This season only seven teams are averaging less than that, but only one of them are averaging less than $100k.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players, in which we see a familiar set of three teams:
1. Lion Rebels - $288k- 72% of their total salaries
2. F.Day Internet Lovers Club - $269k - 81%
3. Mindless Zombies - $268k - 78%

Overall, the 16 teams average $181k for top 5 paid players with six teams averaging $50k more than the average and eight teams averaging less than the average. Jumpstop Jumpers, Muffin Men, and Balls to the Walls are the only teams spending less than $100k on their top 5.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. San Dominica Warriors - $115k ($23k per player)
2. Tasty Tardsicles - $97k ($19.4k per player)
3. Lion Rebels - $90k ($18k per player)

Season 63 Preview - Part Three
Season 62 Final Ranking Predictions
Once again, these rankings are based on salaries, with total salary and 6-10 players weighted highest, then a notch below that ranks Top 5 & Top 8, followed by Top 10. Feel free First Take me to death with these things (someone please do a Stephen A's List). And don't forget, these salary numbers will most definitely change, but my terrible predictions never will! Total points achieved in my rankings will be in parenthesis.

16. Balls to the Walls (0) - I said this last season, but I'll say it again: I feel bad for these new Div IV teams that dominate and then get dropped in our league...they might have a fighting chance in a different division, but I doubt it. Scags did bring in Claus Hofstätter...but I don't think he's going to cut it. For now, they'll have to enjoy their only time in 1st place in the standings this season.

15. Muffin Men (1) - voccc's squad earned 5 points in the 6-10 rankings, but just barely. They also just barely eclipse the $100k mark. I'm putting the over/under win total at 2.5.

14. Jumpstop Jumpers (1) - Coach Randall El has spent a cool $3.3 mil on $40k of young salary to boost their chances, but that still only brings their total salary level to 14th in the league currently. I also almost took a swing at his rookie Calvin Sylvester, but thankfully forgot about it and didn't spend all my savings.

13. VileOnes (2) - I hadn't been paying enough attention to transfer sales, so I missed that a week ago Vile sold off $150k of salary and the heart of the team, so I was surprised to see them at 13th, but that tracks (currently) being $112k under the average total salary of the league. But with almost $1.4 mil in recouped money, they've got some time to spend and revamp their roster. Or they're tanking. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

12. CB Bethesdorf (5) - Creeping closer to $200k in salary, Dabizinho is actually ranked 8th in 6-10 salaries. No movement from them as of yet on the transfer wire. At this point, they'd be looking at 6th in the Great 8. But I've been wrong before.

11. Fort Wayne Pistons (7) - The Mechanic may be the one who benefits the most from what's happening (or not happening) in the Great 8, but it might not be much better than one slot above last season's venture. They also haven't brought anyone new in in nearly 18 months of real life time (that's Season 57 for those of you counting at home).

10. Dragmort Dragons Utd (10) - Alex Dani finds themselves at what appears to be 7th in the Big 8 to start the season. They've got a decent group of four split by age, with two in their low 20s and two hitting age 34 this season, which leaves them in somewhat of a dilemma depending on how this season plays out. I'm not saying they'll finish 7th, but the six teams ranked above them from the Big 8 are fairly intimidating.

9. Linndale (16) - (Well, damn it! I picked this back up this morning only to find out that MUFFIN MEN BOUGHT A $63k salaried PF. Here's your Live Updated Rankings with this "latest" breaking news":
16. Still Balls to the Walls
15. Jumpstop Jumpers
14. VileOnes
13. Muffin Men

SVP: "Charles, what do you make of voccc's move to acquire Carlos Webber before the beginning of the season?"
Barkley: "Who got who? Watchu talkin' bout Scott? I got more important things to talk about that Muffins and a wannabe Chris Webber, the greatest King of all time."

And with that, back to our regular programming):
Speedtraps shows up in the middle of the pack with Koncki and MacNeur doing the heavy lifting for them. They're tactically sound enough that they should be fine and in the playoff mix, the only question is whether Air Allnite will cause enough of a storm for them to do something crazy (like sell everyone).

Season 63 Preview - Part Four
8. 209's MostWanted (15) The "Original" Alex's crew reminds me a bit of Season 61's champion Carolina Rebels, who I perennially ranked low in my power ranking lists while it came back to bite me when they exceeded my low expectations. They're the first team in this list to have a higher than league average salary total, and I'm sure they'll kick my ass in the 2nd game of the season.

7. Shandong Golden Lions (24 - 13th in 6-10 Rank) - As far as teams relegating from Div II to us go, the Golden Lions aren't the scariest group to meander their way down, but they will be stiff competition for all of us. Still, their one glaring weakness appears to be depth. They have a Big Three, and a solid starting 5, but after that, the drop off is steep. I do love me some 44-year-old PGs though!

6. Super Sonics (27) - I'd say, despite me ranking them 5th in last season's preseason rankings, that the Sonics finish may have been slightly disappointing as Tasty appeared to have overtaken them. And now, here they sit at sixth, which is probably just enough of a slight to warrant them taking it out on me and winning the whole damn thing.

5. San Dominica Warriors (25) - The Warriors are bringing some new blood to the fight this season with 26-year-old English 7 footer Chris O'Brien. 8 of their currently 12 rostered players make at least $20k (which is a bit misleading as 7 of them make at least $29k). They've never gone the route (thus far) of having One Monster Salary Player, but instead have opted for depth and it's been a mostly winning, or at least highly competitive formula for them.

4. F.Day Internet Lovers Club (28 - 6th in 6-10 Rank) - Honestly, these last four teams could be flipped, and I'd probably be more right than this guess is. F.Day comes back strong and ready to take over the top spot in the Big 8. Keep a lookout!

3. Mindless Zombies (28 - 5th in 6-10 Rank) - The Zombies have done some retooling to enhance their chances of getting back to the finals again. They spent some decent money to bring in "A.C." Carečina to matchup with Thomas Freeman and boost their interior alongside Macario Coedo.

2. Lion Rebels (37 - 3rd in 6-10 Rank) - There's no way I'd list my team first in the preseason rankings, not even if they had $500k more in salary than the next closest team. I'm sure I'll find a way to flub this up.

1. Tasty Tardsicles (37 - 2nd in 6-10 Rank) - I think one of the things I'm most excited about this season (and stemming from last season) is the renewed parity going on between the Great 8 and the Big 8. A couple of seasons ago, it wasn't much of a fight between the two, but now, I really think it could go either which way between the top 8 teams who mostly evenly split among the divisions.

Last edited by Baine at 12/02/2023 10:39:37

Conference Standings Predictions

Big 8
1. Lion Rebels
2. F.Day Internet Lovers Club
3. San Dominica Warriors
4. Shangdong Golden Lions
5. 209's MostWanted
6. Linndale
7. Dragmort Dragons Utd
8. Muffin Men

Great 8
1. Tasty Tardsicles
2. Mindless Zombies
3. Super Sonics
4. Fort Wayne Pistons
5. CB Bethesdorf
6. VileOnes
7. Jumpstop Jumpers
8. Balls to the Walls

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Fort Wayne Pistons vs. Tasty Tardsicles
Super Sonics vs. Mindless Zombies

Big 8 Playoffs
Shangdong Golden Lions vs. Lion Rebels
San Dominica Warriors vs. F.Day Internet Lovers Club

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Mindless Zombies vs. Tasty Tardsicles (Upset!)

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
F.Day Internet Lovers Club vs. Lion Rebels

Relegation Matchups
209's MostWanted over Jumpstop Jumpers in three
Dragmort Dragons over CB Bethesdorf in two
Linndale over VileOnes in two (funnily enough, I had Vile losing in a relegation series last season, and they made it to the playoffs).

Season 61 Championship
Mindless Zombies over Lion Rebels in three.

And so, there you have it! Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Great write up!!!!

but you will need to rank me lower after first week since you missing out some sales that I had

Pio Reina looked at the players in the locker room. The rookies looked nervous. Good, he thought. They should. He looked at each of the starting five. They were each with their primary backup discussing things. That was promising, but Pio wasn't about to get his hopes up. Byron Helm was with the bigs, as usual. The guards wanted Air Allnite to leave them alone. That wasn't abnormal; that he did was. Marshall Richards was with Rolland Reynolds and Rich McCain. That seemed a very intense conversation.

"San Dominica. My veterans already know. We'll find out quickly how this season will go. Whatever you think your A game is, improve it. I have no problem going with a short rotation. If you can't defend, you will not see court time. If I can't trust you on the court, you will not be here. Veterans, you know the expectation. It is on you to instill that to the young guys. My assistants will tell me who's ready and who isn't, but understand I can see quite well also. If they're wrong, they will be held accountable. If you play like crap, you will be held accountable. I demand defense, rebounding, and ball security. Give me what I want or suffer the consequences. Air, is the back court ready?"

"Yes", replied Air.

"Marshall?"

"We're making a late change to the roatation." Marshall did not like the matchups at small forward.

"Byron?"

"We're ready."

"Coaches in my office. Game time, gentlemen. Show me what you've got."

Well your prediction will be wrong about me ranking 2nd to last. I’m going for #1 pick so. I’ll be last for sure lol

"We take it down to Wednesday Juniper, courtside. Wednesday!"

"This was Coach Stephenson in the San Dominica Locker Room during halftime."

"Listen up. Don't think because we have a lead right now that you SOBs can slack off. This is no ordinary start of the season game. This is a rivalry game. They know us we know them. And we know for damn sure they're not gonna give up just because of an eight point lead.

Chris! Big Turk! You want to be called Silverbacks well 5 boards isn't good enough. You gotta give me more. Now let's go out there and play some SD basketball. Because we wanted this rivalry to stay and by God you SOBs are gonna play like you wanted this rivalry to stay!"

"It's obvious that Coach Stephenson wants his team to stay focused in the 2nd Half. This is Wednesday Juniper, back to you guys!"

Last edited by Coach Stephenson at 12/02/2023 21:16:49

Pio Reina was mic’ed up. We listened in at the end of each quarter.

“That first quarter was pretty good. We should have ended with a tie, but I’ll take it. Good, solid defense, ball security, we’re holding our own on the boards. Keep that up. What I need you guys to fix is the interior defense. Too many layups and dunks. Koncki, you have to lock that down. The guards have to support you better on the perimeter. Kops, where are you? I can’t see you on the floor; are you invisible? Hatfield, I want you more active defensively and on the boards. They got the first quarter; go get me the second quarter!” Score San Dominica 22 Linndale 21

“That second quarter was played at their tempo not ours. Unacceptable! Too many layups and dunks! You guys aren’t making them work hard enough. We can’t win playing at their tempo. Slow it down! Get mean defensively. Where’s the rebounding off to? And where’s our third scorer? As pleased as I was with the first quarter, I am equally disturbed by the second quarter. Gimme that defense, ball security and rebounding! You give me that and we can get back in this game! Take the air out of the basketball and make them work for everything they get!” Score San Dominica 56 Linndale 48

“Cerri, you gotta pick up Shooter. Air is with the medical staff, we’ll find out if he’s gonna be able to play. Cerri, assume you’re the guy. Mantas, you gotta pick up the scoring also. Kops, if you get hot shooting I wouldn’t be upset. Koncki, O’Brien is taking you to school. You gonna do something about that? Still playing at their tempo. I don’t like that at all. Take the air out of the basketball. We need more defense and more rebounding. I’m not asking you guys to do something you can’t do, so what’s stopping you? You gotta be better than this! Cerri, Shooter’s not coming back. It’s your time to shine. Let’s go!” Score San Dominica 81 Linndale 67

“This was embarrassing. You guys are supposed to be professionals. This was an embarrassment to our fans, to our opponent, and to me personally. I am disgusted.”

Day 1 (Saturday 2 December 2023) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
F.Day Internet Lovers Club 98 - Dragmort Dragons Utd 88
Linndale 94 - San Dominica Warriors 113
Muffin Men 62 - Lion Rebels 94
209’s MostWanted 80 - Shandong Golden Lions 92
CB Bethesdorf 103 - Super Sonics 118
Tasty Tardsicles 121 - Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️ 113
VileOnes 97 - Fort Wayne Pistons 123
Jumpstop Jumpers 83 - Balls to the Walls 90

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 123 : Fort Wayne Pistons
Rebounds : 65 : Super Sonics
Assists : 31 : San Dominica Warriors
Steals : 12 : Tasty Tardsicles
Block Shots : 10 : Balls to the Walls

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 39 : A. Durham (VileOnes)
Rebounds : 25 : C. Goldsmith (Super Sonics)
Assists : 10 : G. Izaza (Fort Wayne Pistons)
Steals : 4 : T. Burkay (CB Bethesdorf)
Block Shots : 4 : J. Herman (Balls to the Walls)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : C. Pla Llorente (Balls to the Walls) (21 Points, 9 Rebounds, 8 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 29
Shooting Guard : U. Jaén (Fort Wayne Pistons) (34 Points, 12 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 45
Small Forward : S. Aranda (Fort Wayne Pistons) (27 Points, 4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Power Forward : G. Nuñez (CB Bethesdorf) (36 Points, 14 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 40
Center : C. Goldsmith (Super Sonics) (15 Points, 25 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 29

MVP of the evening
U. Jaén (Fort Wayne Pistons) (34 Points, 12 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 45

The bad performance of the evening
H. Kwang Chih (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️) (2 Points, 0 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -4

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : J. Graf (VileOnes) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : S. Kang (Dragmort Dragons Utd), J. Graf (VileOnes) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : Q. Yu zi (Dragmort Dragons Utd), D. Branimirović (F.Day Internet Lovers Club), M. Coedo (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️), A. Guilla (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️), A. Durham (VileOnes), N. Hayes (Jumpstop Jumpers), L. Alaniz (Jumpstop Jumpers) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : L. Alaniz (Jumpstop Jumpers) : 6 Three points

The best performer : T. Freeman (Mindless Zombies 🧟‍♀️) : Rating : 16.0

The worst performer : F. Chongwen (VileOnes) : Rating : 4.5