So with that in mind, we are predicting that San Antonio is likely to beat Toronto handily, winning by 15 points or more 65% of the time, and by an average score of 102-84
(http://www.buzzerbeater.com/BBWeb/reportmatch.aspx?MatchI...). Applying the “veteran team” correction we just discussed means that a final score of 102-89 might be a better prediction. Tony Parker has an excellent game in our simulations, who scores 25 or more 60% of the time, while shooting 56% from the field and handing out 6 assists. Manu Ginobli's scoring varies a considerable amount, as on average he scores 20 points but is under 10 points in over a quarter of our simulations, so he is a good wildcard if your fantasy team is an underdog, but a risk if you are favored. We think Tim Duncan will have a slightly below average night, scoring under 20 points 74% of the time, though he is likely to rebound well. The top fantasy prospect for Toronto is Jose Calderon, who scores more than 20 points in nearly half the simulations while shooting 35% from 3 and handing out 9 assists. Chris Bosh on the other hand is a Raptor we expect to have a below average night, scoring unde than 20 82% of the time. From a team perspective, a large factor will be in rebounding, where we expect San Antonio to have nearly a 10 rebound advantage over Toronto. Finally, as always these numbers depend upon how our computerized coach uses each team, which might not be the same way that Gregg Popovich or Jay Triano will use them.
Our computerized coach recommends that Triano make more use of Jamario Moon more than the Raptors usually do. In those games in which Toronto does pull out a win, Moon averages 17 points, instead of his normal 7. Also, he should really emphasize the importance of rebounding and sharing the basketball, because in simulations in which Toronto wins they keep the rebounding statistics even, and average 6 more assists per game than San Antonio. Since the Spurs are winning in nearly every simulation, we don't have any great tips for Gregg Popovich, but then again, he has four more championship rings than the entire BuzzerBeater staff combined so he probably doesn't need much help. When the Spurs lose, they typically shoot poorly and fail to gain a rebounding edge.
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